Farms need to tailor their plan­ning more closely to weather fluc­tu­a­tions.

What climate changes are most likely for farms in Europe in the next 20–25 years, and what does this mean in prac­tice?

Europe is getting warmer, and the risk of extreme weather increases with every tenth of a degree. Farms must expect more frequent dry spells, heavy rain­fall, and longer periods of heat and drought. In Central Europe, ‘blocked’ weather patterns are also increasing. These are high or low-pres­sure systems that remain stationary for longer and inten­sify extremes. In prac­tice, this means gearing plan­ning more towards fluc­tu­a­tions, for example simul­ta­ne­ously being able to save water and drain heavy rain­fall.

Many argue that warming means more water in the air, so why are we still expe­ri­encing weeks of drought?

Glob­ally, warmer air can carry more water vapour, but the rain does not neces­sarily fall where it evap­o­rated. The distri­b­u­tion of rain is what matters for farms. Three weeks of drought followed by heavy rain­fall is no substi­tute for steady, soaking rain. It is these erratic patterns that are increasing, and with them the risk of yield and quality losses.

Where are crop fail­ures due to heat, drought, or heavy rain­fall partic­u­larly likely, and what does this mean for farms in Northern, Southern, and Central Europe?

In the Mediter­ranean region, the under­lying trend is already hotter and drier. However, extreme years are also increas­ingly affecting ‘tradi­tional’ arable farming regions in Central and Northern Europe. The key trend is greater vari­ability. Farmers should there­fore focus on cultivation systems that can cope with both too little and too much water.

To what extent can regional precip­i­ta­tion fore­casts be trusted, and how should farmers plan despite uncer­tainty?

The trends for temper­a­tures are rela­tively clear, while the modelled results for regional precip­i­ta­tion are subject to greater uncer­tainty. In prac­tice, this means not betting on the assump­tion that it will defi­nitely get drier or wetter, but instead util­ising factors like soil water reten­tion capacity, humus, topog­raphy, and investing in robust cultivation methods to protect against weather extremes. At the same time, short-term weather fore­casts are improving, which helps with the timing of tillage, fertil­i­sa­tion, crop protec­tion, and irri­ga­tion.

Which measures bring the greatest short-term success for a farm?

In prac­tice, there are three measures to focus on. Firstly, improve the soil’s water reten­tion capacity, through cover crops, mulch, and ground cover or by building humus. The most suit­able measures for this depend on the loca­tion in ques­tion. Secondly, always take heavy rain­fall into account, ensure func­tional drainage and runoff paths, and avoid soil compaction. Finally, spread the risk through more diverse crop rota­tions, including crops and vari­eties that are better adapted to the loca­tion, or consider crop failure insur­ance. If new crops are to be grown, consider marketing oppor­tu­ni­ties and prof­itability.

Cover crops or mulch provide soil cover …

… and so increase water reten­tion capacity

You work with model-based calcu­la­tions and scenarios. What specific conclu­sions can farmers draw from these?

Model-based scenarios do not provide a precise fore­cast for indi­vidual farms, but they do show robust trends and typical risks, like major fluc­tu­a­tions in temper­a­ture and precip­i­ta­tion. Further­more, it is impor­tant to look at the system as a whole. Crop fail­ures have an impact on the farm through prices, trade, and input markets. The prac­tical benefit is supporting deci­sion-making by asking the ques­tion: what risks am I prepared to take? Where are invest­ments in a more resilient system worth­while, and where are predic­tions too uncer­tain to bet on?

Live­stock farming plays a major role in climate protec­tion within agri­cul­ture. In your view, what are the most impor­tant prac­tices that can be imple­mented on farms?

A large propor­tion of green­house gas emis­sions from agri­cul­ture are directly or indi­rectly linked to live­stock farming. At farm level, measures to improve animal health and feed effi­ciency, low emis­sion slurry manage­ment, circular nutrient systems and precise crop manage­ment all help. Despite this, it will be diffi­cult to signif­i­cantly reduce emis­sions without decreasing live­stock numbers across the board.

To minimise green­house gas emis­sions from live­stock farming, action should be taken to improve animal health and feed effi­ciency.

In addi­tion, slurry lagoons should be covered, and …

… slurry should be spread in a way that reduces emis­sions entering the atmos­phere.

What is needed polit­i­cally for farmers to invest in climate protec­tion and adap­ta­tion without the rules constantly changing?

What matters is reli­able policy, rather than target visions. This means clear, long-term incen­tives that reward emis­sion reduc­tion and risk preven­tion, while allowing busi­nesses freedom of choice. This can be achieved through more targeted agri­cul­tural subsi­dies, perfor­mance-related bonuses, or forms of green­house gas emis­sion pricing. Predictability is central to invest­ment. If busi­nesses do not know whether rules are being intro­duced or if they will disap­pear again, too few changes will be made.

Where do digi­tal­i­sa­tion and preci­sion farming deliver the fastest bene­fits today, espe­cially regarding weather risks?

Digi­tal­i­sa­tion is most bene­fi­cial where it improves manage­ment measures and saves oper­ating resources, like precise fertil­i­sa­tion, sensor-supported irri­ga­tion, yield and soil maps, as well as better docu­men­ta­tion and eval­u­a­tion after extreme years. This allows bottle­necks like soil compaction, water­log­ging, or drought stress to be iden­ti­fied quickly and specific reme­dial action to be planned.

What is your most impor­tant piece of advice for young farmers looking ahead at the next 25 years?

Firstly, spread risks through more diverse crop rota­tions, a stable soil struc­ture, and the selec­tion of suit­able vari­eties and crop types. Secondly, treat water and soil as ’insur­ance’ and avoid soil compaction, ensure water reten­tion and erosion control, and manage drainage where neces­sary. Thirdly, utilise data and remain willing to learn by setting up small trials to test new methods and crops. With any new crops, marketing should be consid­ered at an early stage.